Race Is On To Build Self-Driving Cars

Before Google revealed its robotic test car in 2010, self-driving cars seemed like a vintage type of science fiction. They were generally lumped into the collection of early tech predictions that never took, like laser guns, robot servants and moon colonies. But with today's cars becoming more packed with information technology, global automakers have stopped viewing driverless cars as far-fetched, and are now racing to build them.

 

Google, which has logged more than 500,000 miles on its test car, is aiming to bring self-driving technology to the market by 2018. Several car manufacturers (including Nissan, Toyota and BMW) have also been developing their own driverless vehicles, and self-driving cars are already street-legal in California, Nevada and Florida.

It seems the future of computer chauffeurs isn't too far off, but getting to that point won't be easy, automotive experts say. For one, the cars will need to be able to navigate through tricky real-world situations, such as detours or icy roads. When snow is on the road, the cars often have a tough time "seeing" the lane markers and other cues they use to stay correctly positioned on the roadway.

The vehicles can also become confused by quick changes in road conditions, such as accidents or construction zones. While Google's cars can do a lot of things — keep a safe driving distance, find a parking space, observe speed limits — they reportedly have trouble sensing detours, or when traffic cops direct traffic with hand signals. In these cases, the cars could wind up getting lost.

Questions also remain about liability in the event of an accident and the ability of automakers to prevent car computers from being hacked.

Nevertheless, a world packed with self-driving cars could potentially bring major benefits, according to a comprehensive report on self-driving cars by the Eno Center for Transportation. The report estimates that if only 10 percent of cars on the road were autonomous, about 211,000 accidents would be prevented every year. Most car accidents are caused by human error, and robo-cars would have the advantage of never getting tired, distracted or angry.

An engineer told Business Insider he expects that fully automated self-driving cars won't appear overnight, but will be gradually introduced. He added that none of the problems are insurmountable, but they're certainly interesting.

"The engineer's view, for what it's worth, is that self-driving technology will enter cars gradually, first for use in certain special and limited situations — highway driving, for example, in a form of augmented cruise control. Then, eventually, after these baby steps have been mastered, the technology will progress toward the fully-automated electronic chauffeur that Google is working on."

Letting a robot take the wheel as riders kick back with their morning coffee is a concept Americans are open to, according to a recent study by consultant KPMG. In fact, some people appear willing to pay premium for them. Most respondents in the study said they'd pay as much as 20 to 25 percent more to buy an autonomous drive car, said Gary Silberg, KPMG auto expert and author of the report.

The results were based on respondents in California, Chicago and New Jersey who were interviewed in focus groups in the late spring and early summer. In all regions, respondents rated tech companies higher than automotive brands, even premium automotive brands such as Mercedes-Benz, when it comes to developing self-driving cars.

"It came back pretty clearly that people view the car as a robot," Silberg told weather.com. "There's LIDAR, radar and sensors, plus millions of lines of code and cameras working with hardware and software to make instantaneous decisions — it sounds like something very high-tech. I think ultimately in their minds, that's what technology companies do."

The study also found that premium vehicle owners were more embracing of self-driving cars and technology. In Silberg's estimation, the reason could be that these drivers are already accustomed to several "assisted driving" features like automatic braking and adaptive cruise control. A self-driving package may just seem like another option.

The idea of a special lane on highways for self-driving vehicles and the ability to turn the system on and off at will also received good feedback from the focus groups.

Going by the announcements of some of the major automakers, cars with self-driving technology could be hitting the market within the next decade. Nissan promises it will put an autonomous car on the market by 2020, and Mercedes-Benz said the same thing. GM said that by 2018, its Cadillac will offer Super Cruise, "capable of semi-automated driving" on the freeway.

Between then and now, costs will likely need to come down significantly before these cars become widely purchased. Added sensors, software and computing requirements currently total more than $100,000 per vehicle, clearly out of most Americans' price range. However, large-scale production "promises greater affordability over time," the Eno report concluded.While it may be a long road ahead for engineers and lawmakers, self-driving technology looks like it's finally nearing the public's reach. And for those of us with Knight Rider or Batman-inspired fantasies, they can't arrive soon enough.